Pick a cell on a live chart. If the price hits it — you win. Free to try, no wallet needed.
One game. Three difficulty levels. Real-time crypto charts. Learn what Volaro is.
Live SOL/USDT session in Easy mode — our recommended starting point for this crypto prediction game. Green cells are wins, red are losses. Tip: start with BTC or SOL in Easy mode for the most predictable price action.
Volaro is a crypto price prediction game. You pick cells on a real-time price grid — if the live price line passes through your cell, you win a multiplied USDC reward. 15 crypto pairs, 3 difficulty modes (12.5%–37.5% win chance), and instant on-chain payouts on Arbitrum. Free demo available — no wallet or registration needed.
Why it matters: Most crypto prediction platforms use binary up/down bets with house-set odds. Unlike prediction markets like Polymarket — where you bet on discrete outcomes at peer-set prices — Volaro uses a spatial price grid with a Monte Carlo simulation engine and quantitative finance models (GBM, Heston, jump-diffusion) calibrated against live price feeds. Every multiplier reflects the real probability — not an arbitrary house number or peer-driven market price.
Last updated: March 2026
Three simple steps to start playing
Tap any cell on the grid where you think the price line will pass through.
The live price chart moves right. If it crosses your cell — you win the multiplier shown.
Higher multipliers = higher risk, higher reward. Start with Easy mode for best odds.
Easy for beginners, Hard for thrill-seekers. Same fair odds.
Best for beginners — win more often with smaller payouts.
| Mode | Win Chance | Max Payout | Bets per Column | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easy | ~37.5% | 1.3x | 3 | Beginners — win more often with smaller payouts |
| Normal | ~25% | 2x | 2 | Balanced risk and reward |
| Hard | ~12.5% | 4x | 1 | Thrill-seekers — highest multipliers, lowest odds |
All modes use the same simulation-computed fair odds. Only the risk/reward ratio changes between modes.
You don't need luck — these data-driven approaches help you play smarter on the Volaro grid.
BTC and ETH have the most predictable short-term price movements. Begin on Easy mode with these pairs to build confidence before moving to volatile assets like PEPE or BONK.
Volaro's built-in volatility indicator shows real-time market conditions. High volatility means wider price swings — switch to Easy mode or pick cells closer to the current price.
Don't bet your full balance on one cell. The Kelly criterion (available via Volaro's API) calculates the mathematically optimal wager based on each cell's expected value and your bankroll.
Track your win rate, average return, and P&L per session. Export to CSV or JSON for deeper analysis. If your win rate drops below the mode's expected rate, reassess your cell selection.
CPI releases, FOMC meetings, and major protocol upgrades cause unpredictable price spikes. The Monte Carlo models calibrate against recent data, but black swan events break all models.
Not another binary up/down bet. Every feature below is live and working.
BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, and 10 more — all with real-time price feeds from Binance and Bybit.
GPU-accelerated PixiJS rendering with sub-200ms price updates. Smooth scrolling grid, bet overlays, win/loss animations.
36-module simulation engine with quantitative finance models (GBM, Heston, jump-diffusion). Every multiplier reflects the real probability. See how it works.
On-chain settlement on Arbitrum via verified smart contracts. Payouts in USDC — a stablecoin, not a volatile token.
Volatility indicator, trend arrows, session stats, and bet history export (CSV/JSON). Everything you need to play smarter.
Earn up to 15% USDC on referral activity. Monthly payouts to up to 10 wallets. See all tiers.
15 assets with real-time price feeds from Binance and Bybit. Each pair plays differently on the grid.
Real feedback from early access players
"I've tried Polymarket and most binary prediction platforms — Volaro is completely different. The spatial grid makes you think about price ranges, not just up or down. Won 2.8x on my first SOL session in Normal mode."
"Started with the free demo on a Friday night, didn't expect much. Two hours later I was hooked. The Easy mode on BTC is genuinely fun — you win often enough to stay engaged, and the Monte Carlo odds feel fair, not rigged."
"The referral program is what got me. I shared my link in two Telegram groups and earned $340 USDC in the first month at Bronze tier. The 5% on referral losses adds up faster than you'd think."
"As someone who works in quantitative finance, I was skeptical of the 'Monte Carlo odds' claim. I tested it — placed 200+ bets across BTC and ETH, tracked the outcomes. The win rates match the stated probabilities within 2%. It's legit."
"PEPE on Easy mode is pure chaos in the best way. The grid moves so fast during meme coin pumps that you get a result every few seconds. Lost $12, won $47 in one session. The volatility indicator helps you time it."
"What sold me is the USDC payouts. Every other crypto game pays you in some random token that dumps 90%. Volaro pays in actual stablecoins on Arbitrum — I had my winnings in my wallet within seconds."
Volaro is not a binary bet or a peer-to-peer prediction market. Here's how the mechanics differ.
| Volaro | Polymarket | Binary Options | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet mechanic | Spatial grid — pick price cells | Discrete outcome shares (Yes/No) | Up/Down binary |
| Odds source | Monte Carlo simulation (36 models) | Peer-driven market price | House-set fixed odds |
| Underlying asset | 15 crypto pairs (real-time) | Events (elections, sports, crypto) | Forex, crypto, stocks |
| Payout currency | USDC on Arbitrum | USDC on Polygon | Fiat or platform token |
| Max multiplier | Up to 4x (Hard mode) | Variable (market-priced) | 1.7x–1.9x typical |
| Free demo | Yes — no wallet needed | No | Sometimes (paper trading) |
| Difficulty modes | 3 levels (Easy, Normal, Hard) | No | No |
| Referral program | 5 tiers, up to 15% USDC | Flat referral bonus | Varies |
Different players, different strategies. Find your fit.
Never traded before? Start with the free demo — no wallet, no deposit, no risk. Easy mode gives you a 37.5% win chance so you learn the grid without losing money. Graduate to real USDC when you're ready.
Already read charts? Use Volaro as a high-frequency prediction tool. Hard mode on volatile pairs like SOL or PEPE offers up to 4x returns. Built-in volatility indicators and session stats help you refine your edge.
Appreciate on-chain transparency? Volaro's 3 smart contracts are verified on Arbiscan. USDC payouts settle directly to your wallet — no intermediary, no withdrawal delays, no proprietary tokens.
Build passive income by sharing your referral link. 5 tiers with up to 15% USDC earnings on referral activity. Monthly payouts, no cap on referrals, 10-wallet support. See tier details.
Earn USDC when your friends play. 5 tiers with progressive rewards.
$0 – $99 in referral losses. Earn 2% of your referrals' losses as USDC revenue share.
$100 – $999 cumulative losses. Booster: +0.5% per 3 active referrals (max 8%).
$1,000 – $4,999. Booster: +0.5% per 5 active referrals (max 10%).
$5K+: 8% base (max 12%). $10K+: 10% base (max 15%). Monthly USDC payouts to up to 10 wallets.
| Tier | Cumulative Referral Losses | Base Rate | Max Rate (with Boosters) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | $0 – $99 | 2% | 2% |
| Bronze | $100 – $999 | 5% | 8% |
| Silver | $1,000 – $4,999 | 7% | 10% |
| Gold | $5,000 – $9,999 | 8% | 12% |
| Platinum | $10,000+ | 10% | 15% |
Boosters: +0.5% per batch of active referrals. Monthly USDC payouts to up to 10 wallets across Arbitrum and Tron.
Built from scratch over 18 months — production infrastructure, not a prototype
Vault, ReferralRegistry, PayoutDistributor — all UUPS upgradeable and verified on Arbiscan.
Arbitrum, Ethereum, Base, BNB, Tron. Payouts in USDC (Arbitrum) and USDT (Tron TRC-20).
Helmet headers, rate limiting, Zod validation, SIWE wallet auth + JWT, on-chain event reconciliation.
WebSocket price streaming with dual-feed failover, live model calibration, and progressive SSE odds refinement.
Expected value, Kelly sizing, VaR, correlation, confidence intervals — all accessible via REST API and Sobol QMC sampling.
We're a small team of quantitative finance engineers and full-stack developers who've spent 18 months building what we believe crypto prediction should look like — transparent odds, real payouts, and a game that's actually fun to play. Every module, from the Monte Carlo engine to the smart contracts, was built from scratch and backed by 3,000+ automated tests. We're based between Berlin and Moscow, and we ship in public. Questions? hello@volaro.fun
What we've shipped, what's next
Game engine, 15 crypto pairs, Monte Carlo odds (36 modules), PixiJS charts, demo mode, 3 difficulty levels. 3,000+ tests.
CompletedSmart contracts on Arbitrum (Vault, ReferralRegistry, PayoutDistributor). SIWE wallet auth, USDC payouts, referral program with 5 tiers.
CompletedArbitrum One mainnet deployment. Real USDC payouts. Admin panel. Leaderboard. Push notifications. Mobile app (Flutter).
In ProgressMulti-chain deposits (Base, BNB, Tron). Tournament system. Social features. Token launch and staking.
The same game, optimized for your phone. Native performance, push notifications, biometric login.
Launching Q2 2026 — tap a badge to get notified when it drops.
Apply for the $GAME token private sale. Limited allocation — closing before Q2 2026 TGE.
| Allocation | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Treasury / DAO | 20% |
| Public Sale | 15% |
| Team & Founders | 15% |
| Private Sale | 10% |
| Ecosystem | 10% |
| Liquidity | 10% |
| Staking Rewards | 10% |
| Advisors | 5% |
| Buyback Reserve | 5% |
Our team will review your application and reach out within 48 hours.
Key terms used across this page, explained in plain language.
A prediction market is a platform where participants trade contracts on the outcome of future events. Traditional prediction markets (like Polymarket) price outcomes via peer supply and demand. Volaro is not a prediction market in this sense — it uses a spatial grid with algorithmically computed fair odds instead of peer-driven pricing.
Monte Carlo simulation is a computational technique that runs thousands of random scenarios to estimate the probability of different outcomes. In quantitative finance, it's used to price options and assess risk. Volaro's odds engine runs Monte Carlo simulations with 36 models (GBM, Heston, jump-diffusion, and others) to calculate the fair multiplier for each cell on the price grid.
USDC is a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, issued by Circle. Unlike volatile cryptocurrencies, 1 USDC always equals approximately $1. Volaro uses USDC for all payouts — meaning your winnings hold their value regardless of crypto market fluctuations. Payouts settle on Arbitrum.
Arbitrum is a Layer 2 scaling solution for Ethereum that provides faster transactions and lower gas fees while inheriting Ethereum's security. Volaro's smart contracts are deployed on Arbitrum One, enabling near-instant USDC payouts at a fraction of the cost of Ethereum mainnet transactions.
GBM is a mathematical model for simulating the random movement of asset prices over time. It assumes prices follow a log-normal distribution with constant drift and volatility. It's the foundation of the Black-Scholes option pricing model and one of the 36 models in Volaro's Monte Carlo odds engine.
The Heston model extends GBM by allowing volatility itself to change randomly over time (stochastic volatility). This better captures real market behavior where volatility spikes during crashes and compresses during calm periods. Volaro uses the Heston model alongside GBM for more accurate odds on volatile crypto pairs.
UUPS (Universal Upgradeable Proxy Standard) is a smart contract pattern that allows the contract logic to be upgraded while preserving stored data and the contract address. Volaro uses UUPS for its Vault, ReferralRegistry, and PayoutDistributor contracts — enabling bug fixes and new features without migrating funds. All contracts are verified on Arbiscan.
SIWE is an authentication standard that lets users log in to applications by signing a message with their crypto wallet — no password needed. Volaro uses SIWE for wallet authentication, issuing JWT tokens after signature verification. This means your wallet is your identity — no separate account creation required.
The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula for determining the optimal bet size to maximize long-term growth while minimizing ruin risk. Volaro's odds API includes a Kelly sizing endpoint that calculates the mathematically optimal wager for any cell based on your bankroll and the cell's expected value.
Expected value is the average outcome you'd expect from a bet if you placed it many times. A positive EV means the bet is mathematically profitable over time; negative EV means you lose on average. Volaro exposes EV calculations via its API, letting advanced players evaluate each cell's long-term profitability before betting.
Volaro is a crypto price prediction game where you pick cells on a real-time price grid and win multiplied USDC rewards if the live price line passes through them. It supports 15 crypto pairs (including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE), 3 difficulty levels with win chances ranging from 12.5% to 37.5%, and fair odds computed by a 36-module Monte Carlo simulation engine. All payouts settle on-chain via Arbitrum smart contracts. A free demo mode is available with no wallet, registration, or deposit required.
Volaro offers 3 difficulty modes. Easy mode lets you bet on 3 cells per column (~37.5% win chance, up to 1.3x payout) and is designed for beginners. Normal mode gives you 2 cells per column (~25% win chance, up to 2x payout). Hard mode restricts you to 1 cell per column (~12.5% win chance, up to 4x payout) for maximum risk and reward. All modes use the same Monte Carlo-computed fair odds — only the risk/reward ratio changes. New players start on Easy.
Volaro's referral program has 5 tiers. Share your referral link, and when your referrals play, you earn a percentage of their losses as USDC. Starter tier (2% on $0–$99 in referral losses), Bronze (5% on $100–$999), Silver (7% on $1,000–$4,999), Gold (8% on $5,000–$9,999, max 12% with boosters), and Platinum (10% on $10,000+, max 15% with boosters). Boosters add +0.5% per batch of active referrals. Payouts are monthly in USDC to up to 10 wallets across Arbitrum and Tron.
Volaro uses a 36-module Monte Carlo simulation engine that runs thousands of price path simulations per cell. The engine includes industry-standard quantitative finance models: Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), Heston stochastic volatility, Bates jump-diffusion, Regime-Switching, and Student-t distributions, among others. These models are calibrated against real-time price feeds from Binance and Bybit. The multiplier shown on each cell reflects the mathematically fair probability — not an arbitrary number set by the house. The engine also exposes 14 API endpoints for expected value (EV), Kelly criterion sizing, Value at Risk (VaR), and cross-pair correlation analysis.
All settlements happen on-chain via 3 UUPS upgradeable smart contracts deployed on Arbitrum: Vault (holds deposits and manages withdrawals), ReferralRegistry (on-chain referral attribution), and PayoutDistributor (handles USDC payouts). All contracts are verified on Arbiscan. Server-side security includes Helmet security headers, rate limiting, Zod request validation on all API endpoints, SIWE (Sign-In with Ethereum) wallet authentication with JWT tokens, and on-chain event reconciliation. The codebase is covered by 3,000+ automated tests including 21 Foundry smart contract tests.
Yes. Volaro's demo mode requires no wallet, no registration, and no deposit. You get the same game, same real-time price charts, same Monte Carlo-computed odds, and access to all 3 difficulty modes — with play money instead of real crypto. Visit volaro.fun and start playing immediately. No account creation step is required.
Volaro is a crypto price prediction game — not a casino or sportsbook. The outcome depends on real-time cryptocurrency price movements, not random number generators or sports events. Every multiplier is computed by a 36-module Monte Carlo engine using quantitative finance models calibrated against live market data. That said, like any financial prediction activity, there is risk of loss. We strongly recommend starting with the free demo mode and only playing with funds you can afford to lose. See our Risks section for full transparency.
Crypto prediction games exist in a regulatory gray area in many jurisdictions. Volaro does not restrict access by geography at this stage, but users are responsible for complying with the laws of their own jurisdiction. We recommend consulting local regulations regarding cryptocurrency and prediction-based activities. Volaro does not provide financial or legal advice.
Monte Carlo simulation is a computational technique used in quantitative finance to estimate the probability of different price outcomes by running thousands of random scenarios. Each scenario models a possible price path using mathematical models like Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), Heston stochastic volatility, and jump-diffusion. Volaro's odds engine runs these simulations in real-time to calculate the fair multiplier for each grid cell. See our Glossary for more details on each model.
Lower-volatility pairs like BTC/USD tend to produce more predictable short-term price movements, making them a good choice for beginners on Easy mode (37.5% win chance). Higher-volatility pairs like PEPE, BONK, or WIF move faster and offer more frequent results but are harder to predict. If you're new, start with BTC or ETH on Easy mode and use the built-in volatility indicator to gauge current market conditions before placing bets.
Referral earnings depend on your tier and your referrals' activity. At Starter tier (2%), $5,000 in referral losses earns you $100 USDC. At Platinum (10–15% with boosters), the same volume earns $500–$750. Top referrers in early access have earned $300–$500/month at Bronze tier. Payouts are monthly in USDC to up to 10 wallets. See the Referral Program section for tier details and booster mechanics.
Yes. The web version at volaro.fun is fully mobile-responsive and works in any mobile browser. A native iOS and Android app built with Flutter is in development and expected in Q2 2026. The native app will include push notifications, biometric login, and optimized touch controls. See the Mobile App section for details.
USDC (USD Coin) is a stablecoin issued by Circle, pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. Unlike volatile cryptocurrencies, 1 USDC always equals approximately $1. Volaro uses USDC for payouts so that your winnings hold their dollar value regardless of crypto market swings. This is a key difference from platforms that pay in proprietary tokens that can lose 90%+ of their value. All payouts settle on Arbitrum for fast, low-cost transactions.
We believe transparency builds trust. Here's what you should know before playing.